21-Apr-2021 Download Article Share Via :

January to February 2021 METALS BALANCES

 

Please note that the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic has had a dramatic effect on both the supply and demand for metals worldwide. In particular, production and demand were unusually depressed in many countries early in 2020 and so year on year comparisons may appear distorted.

 

Primary aluminium market in balance in January to February 2021

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to February 2021 was a deficit of less than 1 kt which follows a surplus of 840 kt recorded for the whole of 2020. Demand for primary aluminium for January to February 2021 was 11.32 million tonnes, 855 kt more than in the comparable period in 2020. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics. Production in January to February 2021 rose by 6 per cent. Total reported stocks rose in January and then fell back in February to close at the end of the period 85 kt above the December 2020 level. Shanghai stocks rose in both January and February ending the period 109 kt above the December 2020 total. LME stocks were 1316.8 kt at the end of February 2021 which compares with 1340.5 kt at the end of 2020. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production rose in January to February 2021 by 6 per cent compared with the first two months of 2020. Chinese output was estimated at 6452 kt based on higher availability of imported bauxite and alumina, and this currently accounts for about 57 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 17 per cent higher than in January to February 2020 and the output of semi-manufactures rose by almost 60 per cent compared with the revised production data for the early months of 2020. China became a net importer of unwrought aluminium in 2020. During January to February 2021 Chinese net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 736 kt which compares with 595 kt for January to February 2020. Exports of semi manufactures rose by 24 per cent compared with the January to February 2020 total.

Production for January to February in the EU28 was 4.2 per cent lower than the previous year and NAFTA output increased by 0.5 per cent. EU28 demand was 77 kt lower than the comparable 2020 total. Global demand rose by 8.2 per cent during January to February 2021 compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In February primary aluminium production was 5583.4 kt and demand was 5524.0 kt.   

 

Copper market in surplus in January to February 2021

The copper market recorded a surplus of 31.6 kt in January to February 2021 which follows a deficit of 983 kt in the whole of 2020. Reported stocks at the end of February 2021 were 30 kt higher than at the end of December 2020. Net deliveries out of LME warehouses were 31.6 kt and Comex stocks decreased by 7.5 kt. Shanghai stocks rose by 72.9 kt during the first two months of the year. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to February 2021 was 3.39 million tonnes which was 1.4 per cent higher than the first two months of 2020. Global refined production for January to February 2021 was 3.94 million tonnes up 2.5 per cent compared with the previous year with significant increases recorded in China (up 112 kt) and in India (up 20 kt).

Global demand in January to February 2021 was 3.91 million tonnes compared with 3.78 million tonnes for the first two months of 2020. Chinese apparent demand for the period January to February 2021 was 2.08 million tonnes which was 10.6 per cent higher than the comparable period in 2020. Reported output of semi manufactures rose by 29.3 per cent.  EU28 production rose by 5.1 per cent and demand was 12 kt lower than the comparable 2020 total.

In February 2021, refined copper production was 1940.7 kt and demand was 1902.3 kt.

 

Lead market records deficit in January to February 2021

The lead market recorded a deficit of 43 kt in January to February 2021 which follows a deficit of 114 kt recorded in the whole of 2020. Total stocks at the end of February were 42 kt lower than at the end of 2020. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

World refined production during January to February 2021 from both primary and secondary sources was 2268 kt which was 18 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2020. Chinese apparent demand was estimated at 1113.6 kt which was 368 kt higher than the comparable period in 2020 and represented about 48 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has increased by 11.6 kt for January to February 2021 compared to the same months of 2020.

In February 2021, refined lead production was 1130.2 kt and demand was 1148.5 kt.

 

Zinc market records surplus in January to February 2021

The zinc market was in surplus by 68 kt during January to February 2021 which compares with a surplus of 620 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks increased by 150 kt during January to February which included a net increase in Shanghai of 82.1 kt over the period. LME stocks rose over the January to February period to close 67.6 kt above the December 2020 level. LME stocks represent 34 per cent of the global total with the bulk of the metal held in Asian and US warehouses. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

Global refined production rose by 2.4 per cent and demand was 8.6 per cent higher than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese apparent demand was, at 91.9 kt, 28.4 per cent above the equivalent total for January to February 2020.

World demand was 178 kt higher than for January to February 2020. Chinese apparent demand was 1115 kt which is 49 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In February 2021 slab zinc production was 1156.7 kt and demand 1070.8 kt.

 

Nickel market records surplus in January to February 2021

The nickel market was in surplus during January to February 2021 with production exceeding apparent demand by 23.6 kt. In the whole of 2020, the calculated surplus was 178.1 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of February 2021 were 2.6 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to February 2021 totalled 400.5 kt and demand was 377.0 kt.

Mine production during January to February 2021 was 389.5 kt, 39.4 kt above the comparable 2020 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output fell by 5.2 kt compared with 2020 and apparent demand was 188.5 kt, 28 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 48 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

In February 2021, nickel smelter/refinery production was 197.6 kt and demand was 180.6 kt.

 

Tin market records surplus in January to February 2021

The tin market recorded a surplus of 5.6 kt during January to February 2021.  Chinese demand is calculated on an apparent basis using reported stocks on the Shanghai exchange. Global reported stocks were 2.9 kt higher than at the end of 2020. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 18 kt, compared with the January to February 2020 total. Apparent demand in China was 63 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to February 2021 was 67.5 kt which was 21 per cent higher than the comparable period of 2020. Japanese demand was 4.6 kt which was 24 per cent above the comparable total for January to February 2020.

In February 2021, refined production was 36.4 kt and consumption was 32.4 kt

 

Dated 21st April 2021

 

- ENDS-

 

The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics April 2021 published today. 

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274

 

Disclaimer

Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

 

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Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274

Disclaimer

Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

Terms of Use

All data herein may be copied freely, duplicated and further distributed provided that WBMS is cited as the source.

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